As the climate world continues to grapple with the prospect of another term under a Donald Trump presidency, the incoming administration is beginning to take shape. Trump has begun nominating a number of key personnel, including a new EPA chief, former Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin. The lawyer from Long Island will be tasked with dismantling Biden's IRA, opening up wild lands in the West and Alaska to big oil and gas, and furthering cuts to the already-constrained EPA.

Big oil has sent its lobbyist wish lists to the incoming administration, which would increase emissions extensively while simultaneously asking Trump not to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, as the President-elect has said he will do during his second term. While these two issues seem at odds, there's more than meets the eye, and they don’t bode well for the climate. Here’s what you need to know about the recent developments and the potential future of climate action under the next administration.

Who is Lee Zeldin?

Zeldin lacks any experience in environmental policy and is a former lawyer from Long Island who ran a failed gubernatorial race in New York against Democrat Kathy Hochul in 2022. Trump said that Zeldin  "will ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions that will be enacted in a way to unleash the power of American businesses, while at the same time maintaining the highest environmental standards." In response to the nomination, Zeldin posted on X, "We will restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs, and make the US the global leader of AI. We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water."

During his time in Congress, Zeldin’s environmental voting record was very low, according to the League of Conservation Voters, an environmental advocacy group based in Washington, DC. The LCV gives Lee a 14% rating as he consistently voted against environmental protections during his tenure. He voted against measures to improve air and water quality, against protecting public lands and waterways, and numerous environmental justice laws. He also voted to cut the EPA’s budget in 2017. Zeldin's nomination was a surprise as Trump's former (second) EPA head, Andrew Wheeler, was the anticipated nominee, according to Politico.

According to reporting at The Verge, Zeldin accepted more than $269,000 from the oil and gas industry while running for Congress. In addition to the anticipated upending of Biden-era climate rules and the IRA, Zeldin is expected to target California’s environmental standards which are far more strict than the Federal government. Governor Newsom has convened a special session of the state legislature to prepare for the legal battles that are likely ahead. California has the fifth-largest economy in the world, and the state has been a leader in pro-climate legislation that governs everything from emissions to packaging and safety requirements.

It’s notable that Zeldin’s nomination came on Monday, less than a week after the election–which, as Politico notes, is striking because Trump made it one of his very first personnel decisions, giving it "an unusually prominent placement that appeared to reflect the prime role that energy deregulation played in his campaign messaging."

Exxon Urges Trump to Not Pull out of Paris Accords

On Tuesday, at the COP29 events taking place in Azerbaijan, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods made a surprising statement cautioning Trump from following up on his campaign promise to withdraw from the Paris agreement for a second time. Woods said that it would leave a void at the negotiation table, according to reporting at The New York Times.

This isn’t the first time that Exxon has asked Trump not to withdraw from the Paris agreement. The company made similar overtures during Trump's first term, which went unheeded.

According to reporting at PBS, the same is likely to happen again this time around, but he will likely up the ante. Trump has repeatedly said he plans to not only pull out of the Paris accords but the United Nations as well.

"It's coming at a crucial moment. Scientists say there's about five years left. By 2030, the major economies have to cut their emissions in half. The US will not meet that target," according to reporting by PBS. It could also leave a spot for China to take the US's place at the table as a leader in everything from EVs to solar and wind. Once the US leaves the Paris agreement again, most experts believe that China will take its place at the table, which will ultimately hurt the US as a global competitor for climate technologies. It will also all but guarantee that the globe will shoot well past the 2030 emission goals and continue to heat the planet at record rates.

Big Oil Sends its Lobbying Wish List to Washington

Zeldin's statement that energy dominance will be at the center of his EPA administration means that the inexperienced lawyer will likely look for ways to "Drill, Baby Drill," enriching oil and natural gas companies that want to access large swaths of untouched Federal and public lands in places like Alaska and the West.

According to Reuters, the lobbying wish list includes rolling back Biden-era emissions laws that have been helping Americans transition to electric vehicles, reopening natural gas export permits, and repealing the fees on methane emissions from oil and gas drilling, amongst other requests. On Thursday, shares of Tesla and Rivian fell on reports that Trump is already talking about rolling back the $7,500 federal tax credit on EVs, which would make the already expensive vehicles even pricier.

As Reuters reported, the American Petroleum Institute wants to eliminate California's ability to make stricter emissions laws and pull back the EPA's clean vehicle rules. The API also wants to make changes to the Clean Water Act and National Environmental Policy Act so that drilling permits are easier to attain.

It’s still early days, but there’s no doubt Trump’s energy agenda spells trouble for the immediate future of climate action in the US and around the world. Trump’s policy choices also will likely create a difficult business environment for climate technologies. There may yet be opportunities for progress, as state and local leaders return to plans conceived during the first Trump administration. The Inflation Reduction Act has begun to create jobs in red districts across the United States, potentially giving pause to the best laid plans to rip up climate victories tallied over the last four years.

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