Over the last few months, we’ve seen everyone from major corporations to countries backpedaling on climate commitments made in the recent months and years. Despite growing, urgent evidence that climate change continues to accelerate, this is no real surprise.

With the global economy showing signs of stress, multiple ongoing conflicts that continue to ratchet up in both rhetoric and intensity, insufficient international support and funding, and short-sighted (and short-term) political pressures, countries are increasingly being forced to rethink the commitments they made as recently as last year.

It doesn’t bode well for the global efforts to keep the world from the 1.5-degree to 2-degree Celcius tipping point set by the Paris Agreement in 2015, the official point at which global warming has reached an irreversible milestone that poses a threat to life on this planet as we know it.

Backpedaling on Climate Goals

At last year’s COP28, the biggest win to come out of the negotiations was a promise to “transition away,” from climate-warming fossil fuels, last year. While climate activists were somewhat heartened by the landmark development, there were no hard numbers or plans put in place to make that happen for the globe.

Last year’s “Conference of Parties," (COP) language is already starting to rankle petrostates, however, in spite of the fact that this year's COP29 takes place in oil-rich Azebijan this October, the third oil-rich country to hold the event in three years. Many petrostates are trying to roll back the statement and efforts, according to reports from The Financial Times.

According to the F.T., "oil-rich nations are making a concerted effort to slow progress" on the "landmark U.N. climate agreement," noting that Western countries are also part of the discussion.

The most recent rollback on climate goals, particularly as they pertain to oil and gas, comes from the G20, the collection of more than 20 of the largest, most powerful, and richest countries. As The Guardian pointed out recently, the latest draft resolution is missing key language around moving away from petrol fuels.

"In the first draft of the G20 communique on climate, which is under discussion, members explicitly reaffirmed the pledge to "transition away from fossil fuels," according to the Guardian. The draft, however, has changed, according to their reporting. "Leaked documents seen by the Guardian show that in the latest draft of paragraph 5 of the communique, where the commitment appeared in the first draft, there is no repetition of the reference to "transition away." Instead, there is an oblique reference to the pledge, through a reference to "the goals set forth" in the COP28 outcome, which include the commitment to transition away.”

While the pledge does not include any solid timeline, there's growing evidence from countries all over the world that the backsliding has begun. Saudi Arabia has said that the statement to transition away is only “optional,” amongst various other choices.

India also recently pushed back on language around how the transition would be financed. The U.N. recently published a draft outlining a new collective quantified goal and new climate finance goal for mitigating global climate change. According to The Hindustan Times, the draft outlined the costs for climate mitigation and who should be responsible for bearing those financial burdens.  Many expect the number to reach the trillions, with that cost falling on the shoulders of developed countries, which will help those in developing countries get off of fossil fuels sooner.

However, the heavy in the room, the U.S., has not defined a cost or timeline for the transition yet, according to the Hindustan Times. The U.S. has said that it expects contributions from all sources, including "contributing parties." In response, an Indian spokesman told the Hindustan Times, “The goal is for developing countries to be provided finance by developed countries and there should be no digressions from this.”

India plays a crucial role in the energy transition and climate change, too, according to The Atlantic Council, not only because it's now the most populous nation in the world but also because it plays an outsized role as the mediator between China and the U.S. "to ensure global international decarbonization targets remain in reach amid intensifying competition."

Climate Commitment Rollbacks in the Corporate Sector

It’s not just happening on the global stage, either. Global corporations from Ford to J.P. Morgan Chase are all rolling back their commitments to climate change, which is all deeply intertwined with what we’re seeing play out ahead of COP29.

That’s because, as Bloomberg reported last week, profits will always come before net zero commitments. According to a report out of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), an industry group that includes banks and financiers like BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Group, and UBS Group AG, there are some misunderstandings about the role that finance has in decelerating the rate of climate change.

“Instead of indicating that the money required to green the economy is ready to flow, industry leaders now say their first priority is delivering financial returns for clients—and that means energy-transition investments will only be undertaken if they’re considered profitable,” Bloomberg wrote. The bankers are pointing their fingers at the politicians and governments, who have been largely unwilling to make significant headway in fighting climate change globally.

A Backdrop of Global Conflict, Economic Struggle, and Another Year of Record Heat

It goes without saying that all of this is taking place against a backdrop of growing global conflict, economic downturns, and another year of record heat.

Conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and upheaval in and around the Red Sea have all profoundly impacted governments' willingness to address climate change directly. Energy defense spending is up as governments militarize themselves against a growing global threat. Global defense spending was up by more than 10% between 2022 and 2023, and it is expected to only rise in 2024.

The global economy also looks like it is headed for a slowdown. JP Morgan released a report in August that indicates that the bankers there think there is a 35% chance of a global recession because of slowing economic growth and hiring. The bank says that there’s a 45% chance that the world will be in a recession by 2025.

Finally, it's hard to ignore what’s happening right outside our doors. We’ve seen record temperatures worldwide both this past winter and this summer. According to NOAA data released in August, the globe was “the warmest in the 175-year record at 1.28°C (2.30°F) above the 1901-2000 average of 14.0°C (57.2°F). January to August was characterized by much-warmer-than-average to record-warm conditions across many parts of the globe.”

Without global, political, and business commitments, we’re on track to not only exceed the 1.5-degree C parameters set by the climate accord, we’ll demolish it. Here at Climatebase, we’ll be keeping a close eye on what happens at COP29 and what it might mean for the future of climate change and the globe.

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